Econometric modelling for calculating animal husbandry indicators in the EAEU countries
Abduzhabbar A. Abidov - Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Professor of Digital Economics Dept., Tashkent State University of Economics
Abstract
The article deals with modelling and analysing the dynamics of animal husbandry indicators in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and Uzbekistan on the basis of official statistical data from publications of the Eurasian Economic Commission and materials of the National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The paper aims to identify general and specific trends in the development of the industry, and to form short-term forecasts for key indicators of animal husbandry. The methods include regression models (linear, quadratic, cubic, exponential and hyperbolic) for the estimation of which the author has calculated the coefficients of determination and approximation. As a result, the author builds time series models for a number of countries to forecast values for 2024. The paper contains comparative analysis of the resulting models across countries and indicators, including livestock numbers, productivity and volume of production. The obtained results allow to identify both positive and negative dynamics in the development of animal husbandry, which has applied value for public authorities responsible for the implementation of agrifood policy. The forecasts may be useful to justify industry support measures and long-term planning. The article addresses specialists in the field of agricultural economics, applied statistics and public administration.
Keywords: dynamics of livestock growth; time series modelling; forecasting livestock growth in Uzbekistan; correlation; regression parameters; F-test; Student’s t-test.
For citation: Abidov A. A. Econometric modeling for calculating animal husbandry indicators in the EAEU countries. Digital models and solutions. 2025. Vol. 4, no. 2. Pp. 28–43. DOI: 10.29141/2949-477X-2025-4-2-3. EDN: TMRQES.
